![]() ![]() ![]() The picture emerging from this analysis is complex, eluding the simple dichotomy between prima facie support and second order incongruence with democracy, which characterises current debates. This article draws on public opinion survey data from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan to investigate first, whether a “demand for democracy” in the region exists second, how to measure it and third, how respondents understand it. These findings offer a more nuanced understanding of Arab public opinion and suggest that concerns about the consequences of free elections affect support for democracy as much as assessments of the political and economic performance of the current authoritarian regime. Modernization theory receives support, but Islamic identity and beliefs do not consistently predict attitudes in the expected direction. Beliefs that democracy will have negative consequences and perceptions of poor government performance are the most important predictors of democracy's unsuitability. Twenty-seven percent support democracy generally but see it as unsuitable for their country. Sixty percent hold favourable views of democracy generally and for their country, while 7% reject democracy. I test this consequence-based theory using Arab Barometer data from six nations. ![]() I argue that attitudes toward democracy are shaped by beliefs about its political, economic, and religious consequences, including those related to sectarianism. Government performance theories argue that citizens who perceive the current authoritarian government as acting in a transparent manner will demand greater democracy. ![]() Cultural theories see Islam and democracy as incompatible. Why do some Arab citizens regard democracy favourably but see it as unsuitable for their country? Modernization theory contends that economic development creates modern citizens who demand democracy. ![]()
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